Week 4 NFL Betting Plays

2022 NFL ATS Record: 5-4-1

Chiefs @ Bucs

Bucs +3

I was able to get this one early in the week and the game is now at a PK. Thankfully we avoided this game getting played at a neutral site due to Hurricane Ian. Tom Brady as a dog at home deserves a good hard look under any situation. Brady covers at 70% after a loss and dogs are covering at 60% in the NFL this year.

Let’s talk about what I see in this game. The Buccaneers defense, the Buccaneers defense, the Buccaneers defense. They currently rank Top 5 in the NFL in: yards per play, yards per game, turnovers, first downs allowed, points allowed, etc. You get it. That group is elite. The Chiefs offense is good with Patty Mahomes, don’t get me wrong, but it’s not some guaranteed 25+ point offense. They put up 17 points vs. the Colts last week and rushed for only 58 yards.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball we have Tom Brady, and his weapons are returning to the field quicker than TGY to the lottery. Mike Evans returns from his suspension while Julio Jones and Chris Godwin are both back practicing in a limited capacity. Also, LT Donovan Smith is back practicing and should play Sunday after getting injured in the season opener.

Tom Brady after a loss, home dog, and an elite defense? There’s a lot of reasons to like the Bucs covering +3 here.

Dolphins @ Bengals

Bengals -3.5

Are you drinking the Mike McDaniel Kool-Aid? Hard not to. There’s also plenty of reasons to not love the Dolphins in this spot. Their defense was on the field for 90 plays in 100-degree heat just four days ago and they are coming off an extremely emotional win. Now, they travel up to Cincinnati on a short week to play Joe Burrow and the defending AFC Champs.

On offense, the Dolphins are relying on the big play and they’re getting it. Due to the big play success, it is perhaps going under the radar that the Dolphins cannot run the football. They are averaging 3.3 yards per carry which is 30th in the NFL and 31st in the NFL in total rush yards. They’re going to rely on a banged up Tua to keep making big time plays vs a defense that doesn’t give up the big play. The Bengals defense longest pass play against is only 40 yards. Also, the Bengals defense has been getting off the field on 3rd down situations allowing only a 32.6% conversion rate.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense is one of the worst in the league on 3rd down allowing a 48.6% conversion rate. They really have gotten outplayed the last two games by the Bills and Ravens, but kudos to them as they found a way to win.

The Bengals offensive line just needs to keep Joe Burrow upright vs a tired Miami defense. I like them covering at home after a short week.

Ravens @ Bills

Ravens +3

Buckle up. This one should be fun with two of the best offenses in the league going at it. Lamar Jackson is playing like the best player in the league and the Ravens offense has been unstoppable averaging the most points per game in the league. Given, there is some reason for concern on the offensive line and run game, but All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley is expected to make his season debut this week. The Bills defense is good, but there are questions in their secondary after some key injuries.

The Bills offense was on the field for 90 plays vs. the Dolphins in sweltering heat. Yes, these are NFL athletes, but that’s still a lot of ball in 100-degree weather that you can’t ignore. The Ravens defense has looked less than stellar, but have a ton of talent in the secondary with Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey. Peters seems to think they can turn it around quickly. They’ve let up the most yards in the league so far this season so they can only improve. This will be a shootout.

John Harbaugh is 84-34 (71.2%) at home ATS as the Ravens coach. I like having Lamar Jackson and the home dogs in this one.

Seahawks @ Lions

Lions -4

Dan Campbell choked one away in Minneapolis last week. The Lions were the better team all day but were ultimately suffocated by their Head Coach’s late game decision making. I expect this group to be extremely focused and hungry after the way they lost last week.

The Lions may have the best offensive line in the league and their running game backs that up. Thus far, they lead the NFL in rush yards per attempt at 5.9. And it’s not just their rushing game, Jared Goff has had a very good start to the season and the Lions are 2nd in the NFL in Points Per Game.

The Seahawks let up 179 yards on the ground last week vs. Atlanta and a staggering 7.1 yards per play. I think this is going to be a slaughtering up front and the Lions will cover at home in a bounce back spot.

Commanders @ Cowboys

Commanders +3

There’s definitely reason to be worried about this Commanders offensive line matching up against Micah Parsons and the Cowboys defense. They got dominated in every facet of the game vs the Eagles. I think this is a good bounce back spot for them against a backup QB and a division foe. The Cowboys are riding high after a big win in New York proving they can win without Dak Prescott.

I like having the points in this NFC East showdown and think Carson Wentz can make enough plays to win this one.

Other lines I am watching:

Pittsburgh (-3)

Giants (-3)