NFL Week 3 Betting Plays

Saints @ Panthers

SAINTS -3

If I were to compile a “not the guy” list, I think Matt Rhule and Baker Mayfield would be competing for top 5 roles.

The Saints defense frightens me. Imagine going under center and across the line is Marcus Davenport, Cam Jordan and the Honey Badger…. Wanna throw it deep? Marshon Lattimore has your #1 on an Island. They only allowed the Bucs 72 yards of rushing last week on 30 attempts. Alvin Kamara should be back and help the Saints offense out. I expect Jameis to get back on track and he has the full weapons at his disposal to do so.

The 0-2 Panthers may come out desperate, but it wont be enough to overcome their offensive deficiencies. They are converting on third downs 26% of the time puts them at 29th in the league. Relying on Baker to slice up this Saints defense sounds like a potential recipe for disaster.

Lay the points on Famous Jameis and the Saints.

Texans @ Bears

TEXANS +3

Justin Fields only threw 11 passes for 70 yards 0 touchdowns and an interception in Week 2 vs. the Packers. The Bears put up 10 points while running for 180 yards on the ground with an impressive 6.7 YPC. They have a competitive defense that will keep them around in games, but nothing explosive is going to happen on the offensive side of the ball anytime soon.

Can we call it Davis Mills growing pains or is just competing for a spot on “the list” too? I personally don’t think its fair to make any declarations yet. He’s played well enough in his 13 career games to earn some respect. This Houston offense ain’t no dousy though. In Week 1 vs the Colts, they only had 299 yards of total offense on 68 plays. 4.3 Yards Per Play isn’t what the kids are calling “it” these days. And then 9 points and 234 yards of total offense vs. the Broncos last week. Not great. It’s a different story on the other side of the ball. The Texans defense hasn’t let up more than 20 points this season and has faced Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. Their secondary is where they are vulnerable, but I don’t see Fields exploiting that.

Lowest o/u in the whole Week 3 slate. It's going to be tough for both teams to put points on the board and I love getting 3 points with the Texans. It will probably come down to a field goal late.

Packers @ Bucs

TAMPA BAY PK

Tommy vs Aaron. Tom is 3-1 ATS in his career vs. Mr. Rodgers and I like him as a PK at home.

Does Tampa Bay have the best defense in the NFL? Its top 5. That front 7 is elite combined with ball hawks like Carlton Davis and Antoine Winfield Jr. After 2 weeks, this defense leads the NFL is points allowed per game and are top 5 in yards allowed per game. Offensively, they are in more trouble. No Mike Evans, OT Donovan Smith doubtful, and every other WR’s status is up in the air. They signed 33-year-old veteran WR Cole Beasley who should see action right away.

The Packers righted the ship vs the Bears in Week 2, but its not enough to claim the Davante Adams departure has been solved. Rodgers threw for 230 yards, but no WR had more than 3 catches. They ran the ball for over 200 yards and are still waiting on All-Pro tackle David Bakhtiari hasn’t seen the field yet this season. It’s very possible this isn’t the high-octane ARog offense we are used to yet…Their defense let up 180 yards on the ground and 6.7 yards per carry vs the Bears.

The Bucs are going to control the line of scrimmage, run the football and win this game at home. Getting them as a PK at home is a steal here.

Falcons @ Seahawks

Falcons +1

Been following this line all week. Happy to get a point here with the Falcons as they got down to a PK at one point. Their offense has been surprisingly pretty good under Marcus Mariota and that is without getting Kyle Pitts involved. I love that they have been staying in Seattle all week after playing in LA last Sunday. Good for team morale and I expect this 0-2 team to come out as if their season is on the line.

Vegas and the public are still holding onto the Seahawks Week 1 win.

Jaguars @ Chargers

CHARGERS -3.5

Another Sunday morning addition. Justin Herbert sitting out of practice on Friday was all part of the plan, according to Brandon Staley. This is an injury that isn't going to get any worse and comes down to Justin’s pain tolerance. That’s a spot I expect him to play in. Even if he doesn’t play, I think the Chargers have a chance to cover. Their defense held Mahomes to 235 passing yards, KC offense to under 100 yards on the ground and if it wasn’t for a pick 6 on the Chiefs 2-yard line they would have won that game. Little bit of a gamble here, but its important to read between the lines.