NFL Week 1 Picks ATS---Pats +3

Patriots +3

A pick that I love in NFL Week 1 is the Patriots covering +3 on the road against Miami. Since 2003, the Bill Belichick led Patriots are 26-17-1 as away dogs at the spread and have covered the spread within the division 56% of the time.

Defensively, Miami expects to and should be one of the top 10 defenses in the league. They do have some of the best offensive weapons in the league with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but I am not sold on Tua being a proven commodity. There’s a ton of talent in Miami, but this group isn’t a sure-fired top 10 offense right out of the gates and could endure some growing pains under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel who has never called plays in the NFL before.

I don’t see the Patriots taking a step back after earning a playoff berth in 2021. Mac Jones is coming off a very solid rookie year with nearly the same personnel around him and new addition WR Devante Parker. Defensively, I expect another stingy defense under the best defensive coach in the history of football. They lost J.C. Jackson in free agency (and CB Malcom Butler to injury in camp) but acquired S Jabrill Peppers and LB Mack Wilson.

Since 2015, the Pats have led the league in covering the spread when both teams have equal rest. Let’s maybe talk about this more simply, Bill Belichick will be putting on a headset on one sideline and Mike McDaniel on the other. Belichick will have his guys ready to go for this one and I expect them to cover +3.

More plays will be released throughout the week!